Updated -- Mid-Term Elections -- Not Just for Seniors Anymore!

Updated 10/18/2009

Should there be health care reform?

All parties agree that the answer is -- yes.
The health care reform will be “deficit neutral” and won’t bite into the profits of the health care industry. This last statement sounds fishy but if it can be done then more power to you.

The Democrats say Americans have been waiting too long for health care reform.
the Republicans say that law makers should slow down and do it, health care reform, right.
The dems accuse the Reps of just stalling to ruin any chances of reform and the Reps accuse the dems of willing to bankrupt the nation for the sake of a political victory.
Each political side on this issue have their extremists.

If a public option is not included in the final health care bill the democrats will feel they’ve lost. That is until the economy begins to turn around as a result of this new health care bill. If that happens the president is vendicated because that is what he has said would happen all along. When people get into new jobs or get their old jobs back and are spending their dollars on Chinese goods Americans will forget what all the fuss was about.

But what if the public option is not in the final bill and the economy does not create the jobs? The ghost of “public option” will haunt the 2010 midterm elections. The dems will point out that but for the exclusion of the public option the economy would have performed much better. The democrats will ask the country to send more democrats to the capital in order to get work down easier.

The Republicans will point to a rushed health care bill as the cause of a slow, jobless economy and ask the public to send more Republicans to Washington to reverse the damage caused by a democratically controlled congress.

No matter how you slice it folks, unless there are jobs, that pay well and make Americans happy, the 2010 elections will be an up hill climb for the democrats. Any politician who is thinking of keeping their job should concentrate on creating as many jobs as possible. Nothing new in that statement. right?

Well if Americans are currently saving their money there is nobody to buy Chinese goods.
So, the midterm elections are going to be very contentious and both parties are going to target young voters like never before in a mid-term election. The contest to win over Seniors will be just as ferocious.

For the Democrats:

A. voters will have to feel an economic difference in their lives, that is, by January of 2010
B. People will have to respond to the “new health care reform” positively.
C. The general public will have to have a positive outlook on the countries fiscal crisis by 2010.

For the Republicans:

A. The democrats must fail.
B. The failure must appear as if a result of the Democrats not listing to their advice.

If you think health care reform is an issue on the news these days, just wait until the mid-term fight for control of congress. If the Republicans can shake the appearance of the party of “No and I don’t have a better solution” they will pick up more seats than the democratic strategist predict.

The Democrats can avoid this problem but they are betting on the idea that ;

A. once health care reform is passed, people will relax and the issue will be in the past.

B. Once people appreciate their new health care, people with new health care will vote to keep the democrats in power.

So, use reconciliation! Why just threaten? The democrats have argued that those apposed to the public option are crazy and that their numbers are “artificial.” If that is the case then the Democrats should stop wasting time and use this option. If the Democrats insist that their health care reform bill will function as beautifully as they insist it will then they should pass the bill using reconciliation.

However, if by the 2010 election the effects of their health care bill is having a negative effect on the country then run the democrats out of Washington.

So, if we pass the health care reform using reconciliation, how can we measure it’s effects on the economy by the 2010 mid-term elections?

UPDATE --

What happens to democrats if by the 2012 elections soldiers are still dying in Afghanistan and Iraq?

What happens to the democrats if by 2012 the DOW is well above 10,000 and still no jobs?

What happens to the democrats by 2012 if health care reform does not appear to have delivered its promise of more bang for your buck?

Obama insisted that reforming health care would turn the economy, it was the first thing that needed to change before anything else was worked out, so, what happens to the democrats if by 2010 or 2012 health care reform appears to be a tax payor burden?

With any luck, by the 2012 election the benefits of a reformed health care will inspire voters to support the democratic ticket. A healthy economy and a healthy people will emerge by 2012 to vindicate the parties current political struggles. An easier victory for Obama than his first run for the White House.

It all hinges on jobs, good old fashioned or new fashioned jobs.

Good luck democrats

Rafael Buelna